Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, claims that “huge amounts” have occurred since his “coalition of the willing” concept first came to light at his summit at Lancaster House two weeks ago. He is not wrong: US-Ukrainian relations have been on a rollercoaster ride since then, culminating in the meeting in Riyadh earlier this week, where the two sides agreed on a 30-day ceasefire.
However, Sir Keir’s coalition is a substantial but still somewhat hazy endeavor, and there is a significant amount of work to be completed before this improvised alliance is prepared to take on something as complex and potentially risky as maintaining peace in Ukraine. Sir Keir says the coalition is now bigger and that “new commitments” are on the table, though he did not spell these out.
He stated that to weaken Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine, participants in Saturday morning’s virtual summit had agreed to maintain military aid to Ukraine and tighten restrictions on the Russian economy. Planning, he said, would now move to an “operational phase”, with military chiefs due to meet in the UK next Thursday.
He stated, “Overall, we are successfully gaining political and military momentum.” As the plan slowly takes shape, we will probably see a rotating set of political, diplomatic, and military gatherings. It’s not going to be easy. The prime minister made it abundantly clear when questioned about crucial US military assistance for any European-led operation, which is referred to as a “backstop.” She stated that the United States’ position had not changed. On Friday,
European national security advisors were in Washington, including Jonathan Powell, credited with persuading Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the US ceasefire proposal. Sir Keir’s coalition of the willing may have trouble getting off the ground if US President Donald Trump doesn’t change his position on the backstop. In Kursk, where his troops have been occupying a shrinking portion of Russian territory since August 2024,
Zelensky feels that the military clock is ticking. Even though they are clearly under tremendous pressure and are losing ground, Ukraine categoricallydenies reports that its forces are surrounded in Kursk—a theory that was promoted by Trump on Friday. During my time in Kyiv toward the end of last year, Ukrainian troops informed us that they were holding onto territory in Kursk as a bargaining chip for use in future negotiations. However, as those negotiations get closer, Putin seems determined to remove this card first. That might help explain his “yes, but” attitude toward the idea of a 30-day ceasefire.
- Do Ukrainians believe a ceasefire with Russia will work?
- Peace talks are in parallel universe, say Ukraine front-line troops
- Why did Putin’s Russia invade Ukraine?
- Europe
- War in Ukraine
- Russia
- Ukraine